sportsguychrisupdated
COLLEGE HOOPS "BUBBLE" ASSESSMENT - 1st Edition
Welcome back all! We are now just a couple of weeks away from conference tournaments, and with the end of the regular season quickly approaching, it's the perfect time to check-in on the NCAA tournament "bubble". - With a seemingly wide-open field in the world of college hoops this season, the "bubble" seems even tougher to assess than in most years. In today's post, I'll take a closer look at the bubble & how it pertains to each major conference, the final teams that are safely in, the "last 4" who are currently on the cut-line, and the "first 4", who find themselves just outside of the projected field, should the tournament start today. There are a lot of big games tonight, and they continue right on through the week. - We start in the American Athletic Conference, where Cincinnati finds themselves in 2nd place just behind Houston. The Bearcats have very favorable metrics as they have the #27 NET & #23 RPI ratings. Along with some big conference wins, including one over 1st place Houston, Cincy is in at the moment. Wichita State also has favorable enough metrics (45 NET, 34 RPI) that they would also be in. The Shockers aren't quite as "safe" as Cincy at the moment, but are clear of "last four in" territory. - The A-10 has been a solid conference as well, and while it isn't maybe getting the respect out there that it should, they would get 3 teams in if the tournament started today. Rhode Island has been solid all season-long & doesn't get downgraded for their loss to red-hot Dayton last week. At 19-6 overall, with a NET of 32 & RPI of 17 the Rams should be in - as of now anyway. Richmond has also had a stellar season out of the A-10 so far. With a couple of solid non-conference wins (including a 10-point victory over a Wisconsin team that is comfortably in at the moment), and a NET of 44 & RPI of 31, the metrics are favorable as well. The Spiders deserve to be in the field should the tournament start today. - The ACC as a whole has been a surprising disappointment to this point. Heavyweights Duke, Florida State, and Louisville have all performed, and defending Champ Virginia has woken from an early season slumber, but after that, it's a whole lot of bleh. Notre Dame, N.C. State, and Syracuse are all on the bubble, but all have a plethora of work to do. They all have strength of schedules currently ranked in the 50s, but that's about it for all three. The metrics, and overall resumes of all three don't point to tournament teams at the moment - despite being in the normally loaded ACC. - After Texas was blown out by Iowa State, and honestly didn't even bother to show up, the Longhorns' stay on the "bubble" was a brief one, and leaves just Oklahoma as the sole "bubble" team out of the Big XII. With a big win over West Virginia last week, and very solid metrics, including a strength of schedule (SOS) of 17, the Sooners find themselves on the right side of the bubble. - That takes us to the Big TEN, where Purdue and Indiana are trying to stay alive in the "bubble" hunt, and Minnesota is still hanging on by a thread. At just 12-12, the Golden Gophers have plenty of work to do, but their #4 SOS in the entire country, and NET of 43 are keeping them alive. Purdue has a huge game at Wisconsin tonight, and while the Boilermakers are just 14-12 overall, they do have a top-35 NET, and #7 SOS. Indiana, meanwhile, has been on a recent skid, but does own a very impressive non-conference blowout of highly regarded Florida State, which would help to put them in at the moment. The Hoosiers are trending in the wrong direction, however, and are far from safe. - The Big East offers perhaps the most intrigue when it comes to the "bubble". Xavier is very much alive and have played better over their last two weeks, and have very favorable metrics. The current boost from top 40 NET, RPI, and SOS rankings has them in at the moment. Meanwhile, Georgetown's big road win at Butler over the weekend has them in "bubble"mix, thanks to a SOS of 29 and mid-40s NET & RPI ratings. Then there is Providence. The Friars are just 14-12, but own 5 Quad 1 victories, including three consecutive wins within conference over ranked teams- @ Butler, vs Creighton, vs Seton Hall. For all of the good, the Friars' do have 3 'Quad 3' losses, which isn't so good. One thing that is for sure - tonight's game @ Georgetown is shaping up to have major "bubble" implications. - Looking around the rest of the college basketball world, USC is safely in out of the Pac-12 at the moment, but fellow Pac-12 foes Arizona State & Stanford have plenty of work to do. The Sun Devils' have decent metrics, but not a ton of notable of victories, and they own an ugly 40-point non-conference loss to fellow "bubble" team Saint Mary's, which is really hurting them at the moment. Stanford has lost their last 2 and are trending in the wrong direction, and need another couple of quality wins to get back into the conversation. - Then there is the SEC. The "bubble" has grown significantly over the past week or so for the SEC, as the conference has started to beat each other up a bit. Florida would be comfortably in at the moment, and despite just the 14-11 record, Alabama would find themselves in "last 4 in" territory along with Mississippi State. Arkansas probably has the best overall resume of the bunch, but they've been on a recent skid, and are just 4-8 in league play. - Finally, we have the mid-majors that are in the mix for an at-large bid. Two of the biggest "bubble" teams at the moment reside in the WCC in BYU & Saint Mary's. The Cougars are lacking significant Quad 1 wins, but the metrics love them (23 NET, 22 RPI, top 60 SOS), making them one of the more interesting teams that are currently "dancing" on the cut-line. Fellow WCC Saint Mary's has the big aforementioned blowout of ASU, and a non-conference win over Wisconsin, as well as a victory over BYU. The Gaels still have work to do, but have strong enough metrics at the moment to join BYU in the "last 4 in" category. - East Tennessee State may be the biggest surprise on the list, and may be able to win the Southern Conference outright as they are currently tied with Furman. At 23-4 overall, and with a road victory at LSU, along with a couple of other quality wins, strong metrics, and a huge opportunity ahead of them tonight (at home against 22-5 Furman), the Buccaneers would be comfortably in the field at the moment. - Without further ado, here is a breakdown of the current NCAA college basketball "bubble" as it pertains to reaching the NCAA tournament: - (NET rating, RPI ranking, and SOS ranking next to each team's record) - THE "BUBBLE": - American Athletic Conference - Cincinnati (10-3, 17-8) 27/23/61* Wichita St. (7-5, 19-6) 45/34/71* SMU (8-4, 18-6) 66/56/96 @ Memphis (6-6, 17-8) 59/58/78 Tulsa (9-3, 17-8) 82/87/92 - A-10 - Rhode Island (11-2, 19-6) 32/18/77* Richmond (9-3, 19-6) 44/31/89* VCU (7-5, 17-8) 52/51/81 Duquesne (8-4, 18-6) 86/68/131 - ACC - Syracuse (7-7, 14-11) 64/89/52 NC State (7-7, 16-9) 60/63/57 Notre Dame (7-8, 16-10) 61/99/54 - Big XII - Oklahoma (6-7, 16-10) 47/32/17* - Big East - Xavier (6-7, 17-9) 39/28/32* Providence (7-6, 14-12) 58/59/41 @ Georgetown (5-7, 15-10) 46/45/29 @ - Big TEN - Purdue (7-8, 14-12) 33/77/7 @ Indiana (6-8, 16-9) 63/54/22* Minnesota (6-8, 12-12) 43/80/4 - Pac-12 - USC (8-5, 19-7) 49/29/65* Arizona State (8-4, 17-8) 50/24/44 Stanford (5-7, 16-9) 37/76/80 - SEC - Florida (8-4, 16-9) 35/41/36* Alabama (6-6, 14-11) 36/46/31** Mississippi State (7-5, 16-9) 53/48/49** South Carolina (8-4, 16-9) 65/61/69 Arkansas (4-8, 16-9) 48/39/51 Tennessee (6-6, 14-11) 62/70/39 - Others (Mid-Majors) - East Tennessee. St. (12-2, 23-4) 42/35/111* BYU (10-3, 21-7) 23/22/60** Saint Mary's (8-4, 21-6) 34/33/86)** Utah State (10-5, 21-7) 41/38/84 - *-safely in **-last 4 in @-first 4 out - LAST 4 IN: ----------------- ALABAMA (14-11) MISSISSIPPI STATE (16-9) BYU (21-7) SAINT MARY'S (21-6) - FIRST 4 OUT: ---------------------- PURDUE (14-12) PROVIDENCE (14-12) GEORGETOWN (15-10) SMU (18-6) ---- Chris Elgersma - You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris - I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!
sportsguychrisupdated
COLLEGE HOOPS "BUBBLE" ASSESSMENT - 1st Edition
Welcome back all! We are now just a couple of weeks away from conference tournaments, and with the end of the regular season quickly approaching, it's the perfect time to check-in on the NCAA tournament "bubble". - With a seemingly wide-open field in the world of college hoops this season, the "bubble" seems even tougher to assess than in most years. In today's post, I'll take a closer look at the bubble & how it pertains to each major conference, the final teams that are safely in, the "last 4" who are currently on the cut-line, and the "first 4", who find themselves just outside of the projected field, should the tournament start today. There are a lot of big games tonight, and they continue right on through the week. - We start in the American Athletic Conference, where Cincinnati finds themselves in 2nd place just behind Houston. The Bearcats have very favorable metrics as they have the #27 NET & #23 RPI ratings. Along with some big conference wins, including one over 1st place Houston, Cincy is in at the moment. Wichita State also has favorable enough metrics (45 NET, 34 RPI) that they would also be in. The Shockers aren't quite as "safe" as Cincy at the moment, but are clear of "last four in" territory. - The A-10 has been a solid conference as well, and while it isn't maybe getting the respect out there that it should, they would get 3 teams in if the tournament started today. Rhode Island has been solid all season-long & doesn't get downgraded for their loss to red-hot Dayton last week. At 19-6 overall, with a NET of 32 & RPI of 17 the Rams should be in - as of now anyway. Richmond has also had a stellar season out of the A-10 so far. With a couple of solid non-conference wins (including a 10-point victory over a Wisconsin team that is comfortably in at the moment), and a NET of 44 & RPI of 31, the metrics are favorable as well. The Spiders deserve to be in the field should the tournament start today. - The ACC as a whole has been a surprising disappointment to this point. Heavyweights Duke, Florida State, and Louisville have all performed, and defending Champ Virginia has woken from an early season slumber, but after that, it's a whole lot of bleh. Notre Dame, N.C. State, and Syracuse are all on the bubble, but all have a plethora of work to do. They all have strength of schedules currently ranked in the 50s, but that's about it for all three. The metrics, and overall resumes of all three don't point to tournament teams at the moment - despite being in the normally loaded ACC. - After Texas was blown out by Iowa State, and honestly didn't even bother to show up, the Longhorns' stay on the "bubble" was a brief one, and leaves just Oklahoma as the sole "bubble" team out of the Big XII. With a big win over West Virginia last week, and very solid metrics, including a strength of schedule (SOS) of 17, the Sooners find themselves on the right side of the bubble. - That takes us to the Big TEN, where Purdue and Indiana are trying to stay alive in the "bubble" hunt, and Minnesota is still hanging on by a thread. At just 12-12, the Golden Gophers have plenty of work to do, but their #4 SOS in the entire country, and NET of 43 are keeping them alive. Purdue has a huge game at Wisconsin tonight, and while the Boilermakers are just 14-12 overall, they do have a top-35 NET, and #7 SOS. Indiana, meanwhile, has been on a recent skid, but does own a very impressive non-conference blowout of highly regarded Florida State, which would help to put them in at the moment. The Hoosiers are trending in the wrong direction, however, and are far from safe. - The Big East offers perhaps the most intrigue when it comes to the "bubble". Xavier is very much alive and have played better over their last two weeks, and have very favorable metrics. The current boost from top 40 NET, RPI, and SOS rankings has them in at the moment. Meanwhile, Georgetown's big road win at Butler over the weekend has them in "bubble"mix, thanks to a SOS of 29 and mid-40s NET & RPI ratings. Then there is Providence. The Friars are just 14-12, but own 5 Quad 1 victories, including three consecutive wins within conference over ranked teams- @ Butler, vs Creighton, vs Seton Hall. For all of the good, the Friars' do have 3 'Quad 3' losses, which isn't so good. One thing that is for sure - tonight's game @ Georgetown is shaping up to have major "bubble" implications. - Looking around the rest of the college basketball world, USC is safely in out of the Pac-12 at the moment, but fellow Pac-12 foes Arizona State & Stanford have plenty of work to do. The Sun Devils' have decent metrics, but not a ton of notable of victories, and they own an ugly 40-point non-conference loss to fellow "bubble" team Saint Mary's, which is really hurting them at the moment. Stanford has lost their last 2 and are trending in the wrong direction, and need another couple of quality wins to get back into the conversation. - Then there is the SEC. The "bubble" has grown significantly over the past week or so for the SEC, as the conference has started to beat each other up a bit. Florida would be comfortably in at the moment, and despite just the 14-11 record, Alabama would find themselves in "last 4 in" territory along with Mississippi State. Arkansas probably has the best overall resume of the bunch, but they've been on a recent skid, and are just 4-8 in league play. - Finally, we have the mid-majors that are in the mix for an at-large bid. Two of the biggest "bubble" teams at the moment reside in the WCC in BYU & Saint Mary's. The Cougars are lacking significant Quad 1 wins, but the metrics love them (23 NET, 22 RPI, top 60 SOS), making them one of the more interesting teams that are currently "dancing" on the cut-line. Fellow WCC Saint Mary's has the big aforementioned blowout of ASU, and a non-conference win over Wisconsin, as well as a victory over BYU. The Gaels still have work to do, but have strong enough metrics at the moment to join BYU in the "last 4 in" category. - East Tennessee State may be the biggest surprise on the list, and may be able to win the Southern Conference outright as they are currently tied with Furman. At 23-4 overall, and with a road victory at LSU, along with a couple of other quality wins, strong metrics, and a huge opportunity ahead of them tonight (at home against 22-5 Furman), the Buccaneers would be comfortably in the field at the moment. - Without further ado, here is a breakdown of the current NCAA college basketball "bubble" as it pertains to reaching the NCAA tournament: - (NET rating, RPI ranking, and SOS ranking next to each team's record) - THE "BUBBLE": - American Athletic Conference - Cincinnati (10-3, 17-8) 27/23/61* Wichita St. (7-5, 19-6) 45/34/71* SMU (8-4, 18-6) 66/56/96 @ Memphis (6-6, 17-8) 59/58/78 Tulsa (9-3, 17-8) 82/87/92 - A-10 - Rhode Island (11-2, 19-6) 32/18/77* Richmond (9-3, 19-6) 44/31/89* VCU (7-5, 17-8) 52/51/81 Duquesne (8-4, 18-6) 86/68/131 - ACC - Syracuse (7-7, 14-11) 64/89/52 NC State (7-7, 16-9) 60/63/57 Notre Dame (7-8, 16-10) 61/99/54 - Big XII - Oklahoma (6-7, 16-10) 47/32/17* - Big East - Xavier (6-7, 17-9) 39/28/32* Providence (7-6, 14-12) 58/59/41 @ Georgetown (5-7, 15-10) 46/45/29 @ - Big TEN - Purdue (7-8, 14-12) 33/77/7 @ Indiana (6-8, 16-9) 63/54/22* Minnesota (6-8, 12-12) 43/80/4 - Pac-12 - USC (8-5, 19-7) 49/29/65* Arizona State (8-4, 17-8) 50/24/44 Stanford (5-7, 16-9) 37/76/80 - SEC - Florida (8-4, 16-9) 35/41/36* Alabama (6-6, 14-11) 36/46/31** Mississippi State (7-5, 16-9) 53/48/49** South Carolina (8-4, 16-9) 65/61/69 Arkansas (4-8, 16-9) 48/39/51 Tennessee (6-6, 14-11) 62/70/39 - Others (Mid-Majors) - East Tennessee. St. (12-2, 23-4) 42/35/111* BYU (10-3, 21-7) 23/22/60** Saint Mary's (8-4, 21-6) 34/33/86)** Utah State (10-5, 21-7) 41/38/84 - *-safely in **-last 4 in @-first 4 out - LAST 4 IN: ----------------- ALABAMA (14-11) MISSISSIPPI STATE (16-9) BYU (21-7) SAINT MARY'S (21-6) - FIRST 4 OUT: ---------------------- PURDUE (14-12) PROVIDENCE (14-12) GEORGETOWN (15-10) SMU (18-6) ---- Chris Elgersma - You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris - I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!
sportsguychrisupdated
COLLEGE HOOPS "BUBBLE" ASSESSMENT - 1st Edition
Welcome back all! We are now just a couple of weeks away from conference tournaments, and with the end of the regular season quickly approaching, it's the perfect time to check-in on the NCAA tournament "bubble". - With a seemingly wide-open field in the world of college hoops this season, the "bubble" seems even tougher to assess than in most years. In today's post, I'll take a closer look at the bubble & how it pertains to each major conference, the final teams that are safely in, the "last 4" who are currently on the cut-line, and the "first 4", who find themselves just outside of the projected field, should the tournament start today. There are a lot of big games tonight, and they continue right on through the week. - We start in the American Athletic Conference, where Cincinnati finds themselves in 2nd place just behind Houston. The Bearcats have very favorable metrics as they have the #27 NET & #23 RPI ratings. Along with some big conference wins, including one over 1st place Houston, Cincy is in at the moment. Wichita State also has favorable enough metrics (45 NET, 34 RPI) that they would also be in. The Shockers aren't quite as "safe" as Cincy at the moment, but are clear of "last four in" territory. - The A-10 has been a solid conference as well, and while it isn't maybe getting the respect out there that it should, they would get 3 teams in if the tournament started today. Rhode Island has been solid all season-long & doesn't get downgraded for their loss to red-hot Dayton last week. At 19-6 overall, with a NET of 32 & RPI of 17 the Rams should be in - as of now anyway. Richmond has also had a stellar season out of the A-10 so far. With a couple of solid non-conference wins (including a 10-point victory over a Wisconsin team that is comfortably in at the moment), and a NET of 44 & RPI of 31, the metrics are favorable as well. The Spiders deserve to be in the field should the tournament start today. - The ACC as a whole has been a surprising disappointment to this point. Heavyweights Duke, Florida State, and Louisville have all performed, and defending Champ Virginia has woken from an early season slumber, but after that, it's a whole lot of bleh. Notre Dame, N.C. State, and Syracuse are all on the bubble, but all have a plethora of work to do. They all have strength of schedules currently ranked in the 50s, but that's about it for all three. The metrics, and overall resumes of all three don't point to tournament teams at the moment - despite being in the normally loaded ACC. - After Texas was blown out by Iowa State, and honestly didn't even bother to show up, the Longhorns' stay on the "bubble" was a brief one, and leaves just Oklahoma as the sole "bubble" team out of the Big XII. With a big win over West Virginia last week, and very solid metrics, including a strength of schedule (SOS) of 17, the Sooners find themselves on the right side of the bubble. - That takes us to the Big TEN, where Purdue and Indiana are trying to stay alive in the "bubble" hunt, and Minnesota is still hanging on by a thread. At just 12-12, the Golden Gophers have plenty of work to do, but their #4 SOS in the entire country, and NET of 43 are keeping them alive. Purdue has a huge game at Wisconsin tonight, and while the Boilermakers are just 14-12 overall, they do have a top-35 NET, and #7 SOS. Indiana, meanwhile, has been on a recent skid, but does own a very impressive non-conference blowout of highly regarded Florida State, which would help to put them in at the moment. The Hoosiers are trending in the wrong direction, however, and are far from safe. - The Big East offers perhaps the most intrigue when it comes to the "bubble". Xavier is very much alive and have played better over their last two weeks, and have very favorable metrics. The current boost from top 40 NET, RPI, and SOS rankings has them in at the moment. Meanwhile, Georgetown's big road win at Butler over the weekend has them in "bubble"mix, thanks to a SOS of 29 and mid-40s NET & RPI ratings. Then there is Providence. The Friars are just 14-12, but own 5 Quad 1 victories, including three consecutive wins within conference over ranked teams- @ Butler, vs Creighton, vs Seton Hall. For all of the good, the Friars' do have 3 'Quad 3' losses, which isn't so good. One thing that is for sure - tonight's game @ Georgetown is shaping up to have major "bubble" implications. - Looking around the rest of the college basketball world, USC is safely in out of the Pac-12 at the moment, but fellow Pac-12 foes Arizona State & Stanford have plenty of work to do. The Sun Devils' have decent metrics, but not a ton of notable of victories, and they own an ugly 40-point non-conference loss to fellow "bubble" team Saint Mary's, which is really hurting them at the moment. Stanford has lost their last 2 and are trending in the wrong direction, and need another couple of quality wins to get back into the conversation. - Then there is the SEC. The "bubble" has grown significantly over the past week or so for the SEC, as the conference has started to beat each other up a bit. Florida would be comfortably in at the moment, and despite just the 14-11 record, Alabama would find themselves in "last 4 in" territory along with Mississippi State. Arkansas probably has the best overall resume of the bunch, but they've been on a recent skid, and are just 4-8 in league play. - Finally, we have the mid-majors that are in the mix for an at-large bid. Two of the biggest "bubble" teams at the moment reside in the WCC in BYU & Saint Mary's. The Cougars are lacking significant Quad 1 wins, but the metrics love them (23 NET, 22 RPI, top 60 SOS), making them one of the more interesting teams that are currently "dancing" on the cut-line. Fellow WCC Saint Mary's has the big aforementioned blowout of ASU, and a non-conference win over Wisconsin, as well as a victory over BYU. The Gaels still have work to do, but have strong enough metrics at the moment to join BYU in the "last 4 in" category. - East Tennessee State may be the biggest surprise on the list, and may be able to win the Southern Conference outright as they are currently tied with Furman. At 23-4 overall, and with a road victory at LSU, along with a couple of other quality wins, strong metrics, and a huge opportunity ahead of them tonight (at home against 22-5 Furman), the Buccaneers would be comfortably in the field at the moment. - Without further ado, here is a breakdown of the current NCAA college basketball "bubble" as it pertains to reaching the NCAA tournament: - (NET rating, RPI ranking, and SOS ranking next to each team's record) - THE "BUBBLE": - American Athletic Conference - Cincinnati (10-3, 17-8) 27/23/61* Wichita St. (7-5, 19-6) 45/34/71* SMU (8-4, 18-6) 66/56/96 @ Memphis (6-6, 17-8) 59/58/78 Tulsa (9-3, 17-8) 82/87/92 - A-10 - Rhode Island (11-2, 19-6) 32/18/77* Richmond (9-3, 19-6) 44/31/89* VCU (7-5, 17-8) 52/51/81 Duquesne (8-4, 18-6) 86/68/131 - ACC - Syracuse (7-7, 14-11) 64/89/52 NC State (7-7, 16-9) 60/63/57 Notre Dame (7-8, 16-10) 61/99/54 - Big XII - Oklahoma (6-7, 16-10) 47/32/17* - Big East - Xavier (6-7, 17-9) 39/28/32* Providence (7-6, 14-12) 58/59/41 @ Georgetown (5-7, 15-10) 46/45/29 @ - Big TEN - Purdue (7-8, 14-12) 33/77/7 @ Indiana (6-8, 16-9) 63/54/22* Minnesota (6-8, 12-12) 43/80/4 - Pac-12 - USC (8-5, 19-7) 49/29/65* Arizona State (8-4, 17-8) 50/24/44 Stanford (5-7, 16-9) 37/76/80 - SEC - Florida (8-4, 16-9) 35/41/36* Alabama (6-6, 14-11) 36/46/31** Mississippi State (7-5, 16-9) 53/48/49** South Carolina (8-4, 16-9) 65/61/69 Arkansas (4-8, 16-9) 48/39/51 Tennessee (6-6, 14-11) 62/70/39 - Others (Mid-Majors) - East Tennessee. St. (12-2, 23-4) 42/35/111* BYU (10-3, 21-7) 23/22/60** Saint Mary's (8-4, 21-6) 34/33/86)** Utah State (10-5, 21-7) 41/38/84 - *-safely in **-last 4 in @-first 4 out - LAST 4 IN: ----------------- ALABAMA (14-11) MISSISSIPPI STATE (16-9) BYU (21-7) SAINT MARY'S (21-6) - FIRST 4 OUT: ---------------------- PURDUE (14-12) PROVIDENCE (14-12) GEORGETOWN (15-10) SMU (18-6) ---- Chris Elgersma - You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris - I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!
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